Leni wins 2nd VP debate; with BongBong absent, Chiz, Alan tie

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Candidates (l-r) Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, Sen. Chiz Escudero, Sen. Gringo Honasan, Sen. Bongbong Marcos, Rep. Leni Robredo and Sen. Antonio Trillanes III pose for a group picture at the conclusion of the #PiliPinas2016 Vice Presidential Debates at the University of Santo Tomas on Sunday.(MNS photo)

Candidates (l-r) Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, Sen. Chiz Escudero, Sen. Gringo Honasan, Sen. Bongbong Marcos, Rep. Leni Robredo and Sen. Antonio Trillanes III pose for a group picture at the conclusion of the #PiliPinas2016 Vice Presidential Debates at the University of Santo Tomas on Sunday.(MNS photo)

MANILA  (Mabuhay) – Sixty-six percent of Filipino voters watched the second Vice-Presidential Debate organized by ABS-CBN on April 17, 2016, according to the Bilang Pilipino SWS Panel Mobile Survey of April 18, 2016.

Among them, 33% named Leni Robredo, 28% named Chiz Escudero, 27% named Alan Peter Cayetano, and 5% named Antonio Trillanes IV as the one who came out the best during the debate. The remaining 7% of the watchers could not give an answer.

Of the 1,200 members of the panel, 632 or 53% sent their responses to the April 18, 2016 Bilang Pilipino SWS Panel Mobile Survey: 168 in Metro Manila, 145 in Balance Luzon, 165 in Visayas and 154 in Mindanao. This gives sampling error margins of ±4% for national percentages, and ±8% in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

The area estimates were weighted by the 2016 Commission on Elections data on registered voters to obtain the national estimates.

About 3 out of 5 across the board watched the second Vice-Presidential Debate of April 17

The proportion of voters who watched the first Vice-Presidential Debate was highest in the Visayas at 75%, followed Metro Manila at 67%, Mindanao at 64%, and Balance Luzon at 63%.

It was equally high in urban and rural areas, at 68% and 64%, respectively

It was highest in class ABC at 77%, followed by class D at 66%, and class E at 63%.

It was equally among men and women, at 67% and 65%, respectively. It ranged from 73 to 74% among 35 to 54 years old, compared to 65% among 18 to 24 years old, 64% among 55 and above, and 54% among 25 to 34 years old.

It was highest among college graduates at 74%, followed by those with some college at 68%, those with some high school at 65%, and non-elementary graduates at 51%.

Those who did not watch the debate were not the asked about who came out the best in the debate.

Most cited as best in the debate was Robredo in Visayas, Escudero in NCR, and Cayetano in Mindanao; Robredo and Escudero were equally most cited in Balance Luzon

Those who watched the debate were asked, “In your opinion, who came out the best during the Vice-Presidential Debate last April 17, 2016? [Sa iyong palagay, sino ang lumabas na pinakamahusay sa Vice-Presidential Debate noong Abril 17, 2016?].

In Metro Manila, Escudero was most cited as the debate’s best with 36%, followed by Cayetano (27%), Robredo (22%), and Trillanes (4%). The remaining 11% cannot give answer.

In Balance Luzon, Robredo (34%) and Escudero (33%) were equally most mentioned, followed by Cayetano (21%), and Trillanes (2%). Ten percent could not give an answer.

In the Visayas, Robredo was most cited with 46%, followed by Cayetano (25%), Escudero (19%) and Trillanes (6%). Four percent could not give an answer.

In Mindanao, Cayetano was most cited with 40%, followed by Escudero (24%), Robredo (23%) and Trillanes (8%). Four percent could not give an answer.

Escudero and Robredo were equally most mentioned in overall urban areas, with 31% each, while Robredo (36%) was most cited in overall rural areas.

Robredo was most mentioned in class ABC (39%) and class E (47%).

In class D, Robredo (31%) and Escudero (30%) were most mentioned as the debate’s best.

Among men, Robredo (31%), Escudero (30%) and Cayetano (28%) were the three most mentioned as the best in the debate. Among women, Robredo was most cited with 35%.

Robredo was most cited among 45 years old and above, ranging from 38 to 41%. On the other hand, Escudero was most cited among 18-24 with 36%, while Cayetano was most cited among 35-44 with 32%. Robredo (33%), Cayetano (29%) and Escudero (28%) were most mentioned among 25-34.

Robredo was most cited as the debate’s best among college graduates (38%) and nonelementary graduates (39%). Escudero was most mentioned among those with some high school, with 37%. Robredo (34%) and Cayetano (31%) were most mentioned among those with some college.

Best in the second VP debate, by choice for Vice-President as of April 14

Of the 33% who chose Robredo as the best in the April 17 Vice-Presidential debate, 17% had chosen her as Vice-President in the April 14 survey, 3% had chosen Marcos, 2% had chosen Cayetano, 2% had chosen Escudero, 1% had chosen Honasan, and 0.2% chose Trillanes. The remaining 0.2% had been undecided, while 7% responded on April 18 but not on April 14.

Of the 28% who chose Escudero as the best in the April 17 debate, 15% had chosen him as Vice-President last April 14, 7% had chosen Marcos, 1% had chosen Robredo, and 1% had chosen Cayetano. None of the sample had chosen Honasan and Trillanes. None had been undecided, while 4% responded on April 18 but not on April 14.

Of the 27% who cited Cayetano as the best in the April 17 debate, 8% had chosen him as Vice-President on April 14, 8% had chosen Marcos, 4% had chosen Robredo, 3% had chosen Escudero, 1% had chosen Trillanes, and 0.3% had chosen Honasan. The remaining 0.2% had been undecided, while 3% responded on April 18 but not on April 14.

Of the 5% who cited Trillanes as the best in the April 17 debate, 2% had chosen him as Vice-President on April 14, 1% had chosen Marcos, 1% had chosen Robredo, 0.4% had chosen Escudero, and 0.1% had chosen Cayetano. None of the sample had chosen Honasan. The remaining 0.2% had been undecided, while 0.2% responded on April 18 but not on April 14.

The exact questions of the April 18, 2016 Bilang Pilipino SWS Panel Mobile Survey were:

  1. Have you watched the last Vice-Presidential Debate this April 17, 2016? (Yes, No, Don’t know) [Napanood mo ba ang pinakahuling Vice-Presidential Debate nitong Abril 17, 2016? (Oo, Hindi, Hindi alam)]
  2. In your opinion, who came out the best during the Vice-Presidential Debate last April 17, 2016? [Sa iyong palagay, sino ang lumabas na pinakamahusay sa Vice-Presidential Debate noong Abril 17, 2016?] (CAYETANO, ALAN PETER (IND), ESCUDERO, CHIZ (IND), HONASAN, GRINGO (UNA), MARCOS, BONGBONG (IND), ROBREDO, LENI DAANG MATUWID (LP), TRILLANES, ANTONIO IV (IND), Don’t know)

Survey background

On March 14, 2016, Bilang Pilipino and Social Weather Stations launched the Bilang Pilipino SWS Panel Mobile Survey, a pioneering project to rapidly survey opinions from a random national sample of voters, deliberately equipped with mobile phones.

The Bilang Pilipino SWS Panel Mobile Survey uses a nationally representative sample of 1,200 validated voters, 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. The sample was drawn using standard SWS sampling procedures, and was first interviewed face-toface on March 8-11, 2016 to become the panel for the mobile survey.

A validated voter is a registered voter whose biometrics have been captured digitally (i.e., digital images of his/her photograph, fingerprints, and signature have been recorded) by the VRM. According to Comelec Resolution No. 9721, only validated voters will be allowed to vote in the 2016 elections.

These voters were invited, and had then agreed, to be members of a panel of respondents to receive and reply to a few survey questions each day using mobile phones provided to them for free by Starmobile. From the face-to-face interviews, the panel members’ background characteristics like class, sex, age group, religion and educational attainment are known.

Each survey day, two or three questions are sent to the panel members at 7:00 a.m. through their mobile phones using the online platform provided by Voyager Innovations. Answers are accepted until 11:00 p.m. There is no cost to them to receive and reply to the questions, due to zero-rated internet access provided for the survey and selected websites by Smart Communications. After participating in the project up to the end of May, the members of the panel may keep the mobile phones.

In the contract between SWS and panel members, one of the agreements is for the respondent to be the only person who will answer the mobile surveys and not let another person answer the survey questions for him/her.

The survey questions are jointly designed by TV5 Network Inc. and Social Weather Stations. Results of the Bilang Pilipino SWS Panel Mobile Survey are exclusively broadcast and published by the TV5 Network Inc.

The Bilang Pilipino SWS Panel Mobile Survey is a joint undertaking of Social Weather Stations, TV5 Network Inc., Voyager Innovations, Inc, Philippine Star, Starmobile and Smart Communications as part of the Bilang Pilipino project (www.bilangpilipino.com), a comprehensive coverage of the 2016 Elections focused on bringing accurate and up-to-date election news and analyses.

SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data-processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations. (MNS)

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